Orioles 2013 Bullpen

Brian Matusz could be one of the more interesting pieces in this seasons bullpen

The Orioles bullpen was probably the biggest strength of the club last season and it propelled them to their 29-9 record in one run games and allowed them to keep games close and give the offense a chance to come back. The Orioles had the third best bullpen Earned run average in the American league while they  had five relievers that pitched well over 50 innings and had sub 2.64 era's.Lets look at how the Baltimore Orioles bullpen should look like come next season.

Closing Pitcher- Jim Johnson he was given the closer role on opening day and he never looked back setting the club record in saves of 51 shattering the old mark of 45 set by Randy Myers back in 1997. He also converted 51 of 54 opportunities and according to the average leverage index, which measures the average pressure he faced in a game, he had the highest mark among relievers in the American League with a 2.054(1 is average). He showed that he has what it takes to be one of the most dominant closers in all of baseball last season and with him still being under team control for two more years I don't see him going anywhere soon.

Set Up: Pedro Strop had a breakthrough year last year where he pitched to a 2.44era in 66 and a third innings having a war of 2.4. He did struggle though as he got toward the end of the year and had a 4.09 and 6.48 in August and September respectively . He ended up losing his role in the bullpen and only pitched two innings in the playoffs.  It is going to be important for him to prove that the ending of last was just an aberration and if he can return to his dominant form than the Orioles should have one of the best closer set up combinations in all of baseball for several years to come.

Set Up: Darren O'Day he was a member of the core group of guys in the pen' that had a great 2012 pitching to a 2.28 era in 67 innings  good enough for a 2.5 war. If Pedro can reclaim his form then he should be primarily the seventh inning guy for Buck and if Strop continues to falter then he could fill in nicely in the 8th inning.

Middle Relief- Luis Ayala-The 34 year old reliever found himself in 2011 with the Yankees where he compiled a career best era of 2.09 after not pitching in the majors since 2009. The Orioles were able to sign him to a rather cheap two year deal and it paid off very well in 2012 with him having a 2.64 era in 75 innings which was good for a 1.7 war. Having Ayala in middle relief should be an asset if he can continue to put up numbers like he has for the past two seasons and could be used as an 8th inning guy if Strop does falter next season

Troy Patton was the lone lefty in the bullpen' for a lot of last season and he thrived in that role last season posting a 2.53 era in 55 innings good enough for a 1.8 war. Since making the transition from starter to reliever Patton has excelled coming out of the bullpen and should be another key piece in the bullpen this season.

Brian Matusz 2012 was a tale of two halves for Brian as he struggled mightily as a starter with a 5.42 era over 16 starts but came back later in the season as a member of the bullpen where he had a tremendous 1.35 era over 13 innings. He excelled so much out of the pen that Buck Showalter used him in all six of the Orioles playoff games. If the Orioles do decide to keep him in the pen next season it would add another left handed reliever that can pitch multiple innings just like Troy Patton and would make the bullpen a lot more stronger. Brian's future is still up in the air though but he has shown the ability to be a great reliever in limited outings last season.

Tommy Hunter could be the longman after struggling as a starter in 2012. He posted a 5.71 era as a starter but a 3.71 era as a reliever and since he is pretty much out of options they have to find a spot for him somewhere or risk exposing him to waivers.

Michael Belfiore

Zach Clark

T.J. McFarland 

Tsuyoshi Wada

Steve Johnson

Fortune Favors the Bold

In 1965 the Orioles were a team that needed some help to get over the hump and get to their first world series since the team moved to Baltimore 11 years prior. That off season they made what is widely considered one of the greatest trades in baseball history by acquiring Frank Robinson from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for pitchers Milt Pappas, Jack Baldschun and the outfielder Dick Simpson all of whom never really amounted to much for the Reds. Robinson on the other hand went on to help the O's win two world series and along the way captured a triple crown and MVP title. It was a bold trade that set Baltimore up to be one of the best teams in baseball for the following decades.

Here are a few bold moves that the Orioles could make between now and next years trade deadline to help the club going forward.

The most unlikely move that the Orioles could make is to go after the disgruntled marlin Giancarlo Stanton. After the fire-sale that took place in Miami earlier this off season many General Managers around baseball were salivating at the thought of acquiring one of the best young players in the game. Giancarlo made it clear after learning of the trade that shipped several former all stars and most of the teams highest paid players to Toronto that he was not happy with the organization through his twitter . With him being just only 23  and already having 2 seasons of over 30 home runs he would be a very hot commodity if Miami did decide to move him. The Orioles would probably have to give up a package probably including of Kevin Gausman, Jonathan Schoop, and Nicky Delmonico just to start and assuming Dylan Bundy is off limits. The Orioles could also throw in some of their starters such as Tillman/Hunter/Brittian/Matusz/Arrieta into the mix to make it more attractive. The main questions are if that Stanton will actually be available and if the Orioles have enough prospects to be actually able to acquire him. In summary the Orioles will have to give up a package at least consisting of to get the Marlins attention:

• an A level prospect- Gausman/Bundy
• 1 B Level prospect- Schoop
• 1-2 C Level prospects- Delmonico, Esposito, Hoes, B. Bundy
• 1-2 of our young pitchers- Tillman/Brittan etc...

Another Target could be Justin Morneau of the Twins the 31 year old first baseman has a contract that is set to expire at the end of the season and will probably traded by the twins by the trade deadline if they feel they are years away from contending again. The package that the Orioles would give up would definitely not be as much as for Stanton but the Twins would probably still want a lot for a player who has been one of there cornerstones of the franchise for most of the past decade. The Twins do need some rotation help and the Orioles could probably start a package around Chris Tillman and Schoop/Delmonico. Giving up Either Gausman or Bundy in this trade would probably be too much for a 31 year old 1b/dh that has missed almost 60 games a season the past 4 years and hasn't hit over 20 homer runs since 2009.

Billy Butler is a name that has been associated with trades frequently and the 26 year old would make a nice DH and thus making the middle of the order more formidable. If the Orioles were to acquire Butler he would fit in nicely in the order somewhere in between Markakis/Jones/Davis/Wieters and could potentially give the birds another hitter in addition to Jones/Davis/Hardy that could put up 30+ home runs next season.  It is less likely now that he would be traded after the Royals acquired Shields and Davis to solidify their rotation. Before that trade it would of made sense for the Orioles to offer a package that centered around Chris Tillman or one of the other young pitchers but now a trade is unlikely unless the Royals have a need open up in the rotation.

Quote of the Day

"You win pennants in the off season when you build your teams with trades and free agents."

Today's quote come from the great Earl of Baltimore and simply puts in to perspective what each team is trying to do this off season. So far this off season for Baltimore can be described as a dull one in which they have done nothing but resign a couple players and sign/trade/draft some borderline MLB players such as P-T.J. McFarland and OF-Trayvon Robinson. In short the Orioles need to make some moves to fill some holes that the have at the top of the rotation and in the heart of the lineup rather trying to stand still and just add some minor pieces that may or may not end up with the team.

The Sherrif Leaves Town

Mark Reynolds a.k.a the sheriff of Swattingham has signed a one year 6 million dollar deal with the Cleveland Indians. This official ends the Mark Reynolds era in Baltimore one that can be described like his offenses very up and down. There were several things that Mark Reynolds provided to this club:

• Light Tower power he averaged 30 home runs in his two seasons as an Oriole
• He had a tremendous work ethic that  was admired by most of his teammate

While he did some good things there are more negative things he did that took away from the positives:

• Struck out a lot- I thought he should go to a team with a dome so he can help keep it cool in the summer when he fans all day
• Horrible defense- He committed 42 in 2 years
• Very streaky- had the ability to put the whole team on his back or drag the entire lineup down
• Lacked spead- stole 7 bases and was caught stealing 7 times in two years

Overall i think it is a good thing the Orioles got rid of Mark for several reasons. The first is that he would of been very expensive to keep with it would of taken a matching offer of over 6 million just to resign him. Also, he can be easily replaced withManny Machado now at third and Chris Davis playing first who is also a better defender than Reynolds. Strikeouts are somehting that this team does to much of and by getting rid of Reynolds it will decrease strikeouts  while his offense could be replaced by Chris Davis who has shown to be able to hit over 30 home runs a season. To Summarize it is probably a good thing the Sheriff left and his spot can be better replaced with Chris Davis or Nolan Reimold at DH.

2013 Orioles Rotation

Over the course of this off season there have not been many big moves made by the Orioles but the rotation still has many possible combinations and there is always the possibility for injuries. With the season still being a little ways away lets look at my projected starting rotation and keep in mind just like last year anything can happen.

Wei-Yin Chen looks to improve upon a solid rookie season

 1. Wei-Yin Chen- With him being the only starter to have thrown close to 200 innings last year he enters spring training being the most likely candidate to be the opening day starter next season. If Chen can improve on his 4.02 ERA and his solid rookie year he can prove to be (sadly) one of the best pitchers we had in recent memory. Chen is also on a very team friendly contract with him being paid less then four million this year and being paid less then nine million combined in the two years after that including the team option. He does need to prove that he is still capable of being a top two or three slot starter after he had an ERA over 5.00 in September and October and that he can adjust to how the league adjust to him. I project him to have an even better year in 2013 than he did last year and I expect him to not fade at the end of the year like last year after he has experienced a full 162 game season.

2. Jason Hammel- If not for the injuries that slowed him down and causes him to miss several starts he could of ended up having a great year. It is going to be interesting to see what he can do next season if he can continue the way he pitched last season and turn into an ace or will he revert to his prior years and end up being a borderline member of this rotation. If he can ride his improved sinker and stay healthy for the whole season he can end up being like Cliff Lee and go from mediocre pitcher for most of his early career to an ace and all star.

3.Joe Saunders-After coming over via trade from Arizona mid season he pitched exceptional well in his seven starts with the club having a 3.63 over that span. It is still uncertain if the Orioles will resign him but I think it is likely they will and should have an edge since he is from Virginia. If he is resigned he can be a solid peice in this rotation and should definitely be a good number 3 pitcher.

4. Miguel Gonzales- He was one of the biggest surprises last season finishing with a 9-4 record and a 3.25 ERA in just over 100 innings. If the 28 year old righty can continue his outstanding performance into 2013 than he can surely prove to be one of the biggest finds ever and can be apart of the Orioles rotation for many years going forward.

5.Chris Tillman- After posting 3 consecutive season of spot innings and having era's in the mid to upper 5's Chris Tillman finally put it all together in 2012 going 9-3 with a sub 3.00 ERA to surprise just about everyone. His great 2012 season should be enough to garner him a spot in this rotation and if he can live up to his potential he can be a top of the rotation starter even though it still looks more like he will be a 3-4 slot starter. The Orioles should have plenty of time to figure him out since he is under team control til 2018.

Other Possible Members
T.J. McFarland- The Orioles 2012 rule five draft pick should be fighting for a rotation spot come spring training and if he does not make he should at least have a shot at a mop up role. If the Orioles do resign Joe Saunders it is hard to see where he fits in on this team with a lot more experienced starters ahead of him but I'm sure Dan Duquette has a plan to keep him if he does not make the 25 man roster out of spring training.

Jake Arrieta- Anyway you look at it he had a terrible season in 2012 and should a spot open up in the rotation or bullpen I'm sure he should be one of the first names called. Time is running out for Arrieta, who will be 27 by opening day, and has failed to live up to his once 52nd ranked best prospect by Baseball America in 2008.

Zach Britton- He is another Oriole pitcher who has failed to make a lasting impression at the big league level. After having a less than stellar year in 2012 which was shortened due to injury he looks to start the year in AAA and could still make several starts next season if a spot for him does open.

Tommy Hunter- He has spent parts of five seasons in the big leagues and he has failed to make a good impression over the past two years in Baltimore. He should be the a spot starter/long man out of the pen' this year and could work his way into the rotation. If Hunter does not perform next season his days as an Oriole could be numbered.

Steve Johnson- The son of formal Orioles and current commentator Steve Johnson pitched very well to a 2.11 era in a very limited 38innings in 2012. He should start the year in AAA but has a chance to win a spot either in the rotation or pen out of spring training, I could see him working his way into the rotation like last year and he should be able to be a decent back end of the rotation starter or at least a mop up man out of the bullpen.

Brian Matusz- Struggled as a starter last season but excelled out of the bullpen late last season and into the playoffs i expect him  to be in the bullpen this season where he can be a key piece if he pitches like last season.

To Summarize the rotation looks like this:
Hammel,Chen,Saunders, Gonzales, Tillman
with Hunter in the pen and McFarland, Arrieta, Britton, and Steve Johnson most likely at Norfolk

Just Gotta have Phaith

I know a lot of people have been criticizing Andy McPhail and his slow non flashy non sexy style, but we all need to remember something this man has done it before setting up the twins powerhouse organization and so has Showalter he set up the Yankees to win for Tore, the Rangers to win now, and the Diamondbacks who went on to make us all happy by beating the Yankees.

This is probably the best, most qualified, and most successful GM/coach combo the Orioles have seen easily since the Pat Gillick Davey Johnson days. They both have proven to be able to build successful franchises.

Lets look at what they have done so far as members of the Orioles organization.
Lets look at the major trades McPhail has made so far with the two most recent first.

1.Hoey and Jacobson for Hardy, Harris, and 500k- Anytime you can get an above average offensive and defensive shortstop for two relievers it is an easy win. with Jacobson never pitching above single a and Hoey having a ridiculously high career MLB ERA and still recovering from shoulder surgery. Even if it is for only one year of JJ Hardy he'll probably have a higher WAR over that season than those two will probably have over the next 5 combined. If he does have a good season he'll still be on the right side of 30 and with Machado still being a ways away he'll probably get an extension. Projected trade outcome-surefire win

2.Hernandez and Mickolio for Reynolds-Like I said before anytime you can get an above average everyday player for two relievers it is most usually a win. Reynolds will easily hit 40+ home runs in Camden Yards and with his defense steadily improving every year he will probably be a plus defender too. Hernandez does have real good potential to be a good setup/closer in the future and he probably will go onto have a nice career but is a good reliever worth 80 home runs the next 2 years, I think not. Mickolio while having great stuff and a big frame he does not have good control and has struggled in the major leagues. He reminds me of another former Oriole pitcher who was also lenghty and had great stuff but no command i think we all remember Daniel Cabrera and how he turned out. Projected trade outcome-another surefire win

3.Bedard for Jones, Tillman, Sherril, Mickolio, Butler-This fore sure was a win for the birds we got our starting all star CF for what hopefully is years to come. We got a good year out of Sherrill as our closer and then we traded him for Bell who could potentialy be a decent starter in the future. We got Tillman who had a so far has been bad but I feel he will probably have a beakout or good year most likely in the pen next season. We got Butler who was kidnaped and disappeared. Lastly we got Mickolio who we just traded to get Reynolds. Meanwhile Bedard struggled a lot with injuries and never was spectacular in Seattle so far. Trade Outcome-Easy win for the rioles

4. Tejada for Scott, Albers, Sarfate, Patton, and Costanzo- This would of been a win if we would of just traded Scott for tejada straight up as he has emerged as a good 30 homer threat each year. Albers was good for one year in relief and pretty much nothing else seeing as how he was just non-tendered. Sarfate was interesting while it lasted but with us never really getting anything special out of him. Costanzo didn't do anything and so far neither has Troy Patton. Tejada did have a few good years in Houston but we eventually resigned him and then traded him for still prospect Wynn Pelzer. Trade Outcome-Win

Those are the 4 biggest trades(i think) McPhail has made while here and they have ended up all being good ones that have shaped the club.

Showalter as you all know went 34-23 as the manager and has shown he can give this club what it need Self Confidence. Both Reynolds and Hardy fit the type of player that he is looking for and if he went 34-23 with players that he didn't even choose imagine how well he will do with players like Reynold and Hardy instead of utility men like Wiggington and Izturis.

Let me leave you with a few parting thoughts:
1. While he's been here have you ever seen McPhail make a bad or really bad trade?
2.The two of the three teams Buck has previously managed went on to win the world series right after he left and the third the Ranger just made it their only 4 seasons removed thanks to a strong farm system which he helped build

JJ Hardy to Baltimore

The orioles officially announced today that they have traded for JJ Hardy and Brendan Harris and sent minor league relievers Jim Hoey and Brett Jacobson. In my opinion this trade is a slam dunk for the orioles they get an above average starting shortstop and a utility infielder for a middle relief prospect and a 27 year old coming off recent surgery and that has had a sky high era in the limited time he has been in the bigs.

Hardy is a good defensive player with a good arm and his UZR ratings are pretty high. He also can hit for an average to above average batting average and has a lot of power.

With Brendan Harris being signed it's highly unlikely now the Caesar Izturis will return to the team with them already have above average starters at second and short with Harris backing them up. Both Harris and Hardy are both used to being trade candidates with the 30 year old Harris being on his 7Th team and Hardy being traded twice within a year.

In my mind we really did not give up anything with Hoey being a triple A pitcher and Jacobson being a middle reliever making him a dime a dozen and easy to replace. It won't be hard for the orioles to find relief help with a myriad of relievers out there and they already have a pretty solid 4 in Koji, Gonzalez, Johnson, and Berken.

The birds really need to focus their attention on getting either Adam Laroche or Derek Lee the two best first baseman options available. They both will probably put up similar numbers Lee might hit for a higher average but Laroche will probably have more home runs.

Koji Returns

A day after learning that George Sherill will not have another go around with the Orioles Koji Uehara has officially resigned with the team. It surprisingly is only a one year contract and you would of thought he would of gotten more than an option for next season with the multiple teams that were interested in him. This is a contract that is right for a 35 year old injury prone reliever.It is no surprise that he resigned with his son going to school in Baltimore and he apparently likes it in charm city.

The orioles are still probably going to go out and find another reliever with them already having made a 2 year 8-10 million dollar offer for former Blue Jay closer Kevin Gregg and with names like Bobby Jenks still out their they will probably be able to land a decent bullpen piece.

The bullpen looks pretty solid at this point with Koji and Mike Gonzalez battling it out for the closers spot. Jim Johnson being the 7/8th inning guy and former starters David Hernandez and Jason Berken being able to provide solid middle relief for one or more innings out of the pen. Alfredo Simon will probably have a spot in middle relief also and hopefully not much more. There are still a couple spots left open for one or two decent free agent acquisitions or you could look at players like flamethrower James Hoey and Chris Tillman coming from Triple A and the rotation respectively.

O's face hometown hero

The orioles tonight will face a Maryland native Aaron Laffey who has never faced the Orioles in 40 plus appearences in the major leagues spread out over 3 years. So far this season he has managed to win 7 of his last 10 decisions after entering this year at a career .500 winning percent. So far over 11 road starts he is 3-3 with a 4.97 ERA

He will face the young David Hernandez who only has one win since July and that came on August 11th against Oakland. Over five home starts he is 2-3 with a 4.23 ERA and ironicly has never faced the Indians in his career.

Young Guns

The Orioles while having one of the most promising young rotations in the bigs right know have had a lot of growing pains with their young starters.

Jeremy Guthrie who is the ace and most experienced member of the staff has had an off year having an ERA of over 5. While he isn't young age wise he is still very young in the number of starts at this level and you have to believe as smart as he is he will figure it out eventually.

Brad Bergeson up until his injury was the most consistent member of the starting rotation and I hope his early success can continue not only until he gets back but the rest of his career hopefully making him a valuable member of the Orioles for a log time to come.

David Hernandez has to be the second best rookie this season with an ERA in the low fours he looks like he has the ability to cement a spot in the starting rotation for next season.

Chris Tillman, Jason Berken, and Brian Matusz have all been inconsistent so far in their first major league seasons with Matusz and Berken having ERA's over 6 and a combined record of 4 and 13